既に始まった人口減少社会をどのように捉えたら良いのでしょうか。
少し前、日本の江戸時代の人口が約3000万人で推移したことを取り上げ、今後の日本は江戸時代に戻ると言った方がいました。当時に、江戸時代に文化が栄えたことを引き合いに鎖国すら是とした言い方もありました。
日本の人口動向は、
1192年 鎌倉幕府成立時、 757万人
1338年 室町幕府成立時、 818万人
1603年 江戸幕府成立時、1227万人
1716年 享保改革時、 3128万人
1868年 明治維新時、 3330万人
1945年 終戦時、 7199万人
2000年 12693万人
そして、人口のピークは、2004年12月 1億2784万人 この時の高齢化率19.6%
2030年 1億1522万人 高齢化率31.8%
2050年 9515万人 高齢化率39.6%
2100年 4771万人 高齢化率40.6% 実は3770万人と言う説もある
この数字は、全国を一律に表すものではありません。出生率は東京が最も低く、沖縄県が高いのです。一極集中の後遺症は必ずやってくるのです。つまり、地方が受入なければならない都市流出の人たちが間違いなく増加します。しかし、その地方は、受け入れる力がないと言わざるを得ません。
私たちは東京一極集中の反動を回避しつつ地方発の子育て支援策を策定し、地域に根ざした子どもたち野成長を促していくべきだと思います。
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