人口減少の行く末に過疎の町村の消滅があるとすれば、地方自治体存亡の危機と言わざる得ない。
日本の景気を高揚させた大きな要因の一つに、都市への労働力移動が挙げられるのは間違いない。いわゆる金の卵たちの集団就職は、東京都市圏のあくなき労働力不足に対応して成長の糧になったのだと思う。
そして、人口減少の問題も、当然のことながら全国一律で考えることはできない。都市圏と地方の人口移動がどうなるかが問題であり、その前提として合計特殊出勝率におる若年女性人口の動向が大切だと考えます。
１１月１０日の朝日新聞の「時代の風」増田寛也元総務相のコラムは、さらなる都市圏集中の人口動向を予感させて、同時に地方の存立の厳しさをあらわにしていると読むことが出来る。
氏の言う人口動向の厳しさは、
１ ２０～３９歳という「若年女性人口」が減少し続ける限り総人口は減少する。今後若年女性人口が５割以上減少する市町村は３７３。うち４０年で人口１万人以下になる市町村は２４３とした。
２ 都市部への人口移動は若者であり、人口再生産力が失われる。一方で流入した都市部にあっては出生率が低い。
３ 今後は高齢者も減少期になり、地方の雇用の柱である医療介護分野でも雇用を確保できなくなる。
などを論考しています。
人口統計は最も確実な統計学ですが、地域毎という水平的な人口動向は、政策により不断の調整ができるものと信じたいと思います。魅力ある地方とは、理想の人口ピラミッドを確保することにほかなりません。
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