景気回復の施策として、今回の三党合意にも趣旨が明示された「防災・減災ニューディール」について懇談している中でたずねられる質問に返済原資についてがあります。
財源は、超長期の建設国債と、中長期のニューディール債(新設)及び民間資金活用であることは皆さまもご承知のことです。
この返済原資は、景気回復によるなどとお話しする場合もありますが、財源の都度その違いがあることを考え方として明確にしたいと思います。
①民間資金活用の財源は、その事業の持つ収益による償還です。
利益とは、利用料金であったり、手数料であったりします。PFI事業や、レベニュー債のような証券化投資信託化ですから、元々も利益償還を想定します。
言い換えれば、受益者負担を原則とすると言えましょう。事業性の成否が問われながら、事業選択がされます。そこで、上下水道事業など、生活密着なインフラが考えられるものです。
②ニューデール債の場合はどうなるのでしょうか。これは、現在の復興債をモデルにした現役世代の償還を想定します。25年の償還は、次の世代に借金を残さないという決意です。
さて、その復興債の償還条件はどうなっているかを確認します。
・「復興特別所得税」として、2013年1月から25年間、税額を2.1%上乗せ
⇒目安はサラリーマンと専業主婦と子ども2人世帯で、
年収400万円で年間900円、
年収600万円で年間2700円、
年収800万円で年間7000円程度
・法人税は、実効税率をいったん5%に引き下げたうえで、3年間は税額を10%上澄み
・個人住民税の均等割りを10年間、年1000円増額する
・退職金などの退職所得に課せられる個人住民税の10%控除規定を2013年1月に廃止
⇒これらにより総額10.5兆円捻出
以上が、復興債の償還スキームです。上記で約10兆円ですから防災減災ニューディールにおける利用割合はね直接的な税負担になるものです。さて、どの程度まで国民が許容できるかが課題です。やはり税制全体の中で位置づけ検討する必要があるとも思われます。
③建設国債ですが、これは税収そのものです。つまり、景気回復による税の増収から対応します。誰かが返済するわけではありません。景気回復が償還財源の根本です。国民の負担感がない償還が目的です。この景気回復の目安こそ、名目3%実質2%の経済成長であり、GDP2%は10兆円とすれば相応の返済原資確保となるものです。
いずれにせよ財源が明確であり、償還の当事者もバランスをとって施策展開する防災・減災ニューディールです。景気回復の確かな一手として参りたいと思います。
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